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2026 Midterms: House Turnout on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the total number of votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative in the 2026 United States Midterm election is between 125 million and 130 million. Outcome sourced from the Clerk of the House. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative are included in the count. Votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are excluded. If the turnout falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract for which that value is the lower boundary will settle to Yes and all other Contracts will settle to No.

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$4.701.1%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2026 Midterms: House Turnout99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout91¢91%0.8¢—18%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout25¢25%1.8¢—50%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Turnout2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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