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2027 Minnesota Senate Special Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2027 special election for US Senator from Minnesota. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed affiliation with, that party. For the purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) counts as the Democratic Party. Candidates already listed as independents will not be considered to represent any party regardless of any caucus affiliation they may have, or if they become the nominee of a listed party. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or ot

Market says (typical open contract)
61%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
61¢ (now)2.3¢$1.8563.3%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2027 Minnesota Senate Special Election Winner61¢61%2.3¢—78%0Nov 17, 04:00 UTC
2027 Minnesota Senate Special Election Winner20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Nov 17, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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