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NC-05 House Election Winner on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NC-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction. This market is eligible for accelerated settlement based on a consensus of race calls by network decision desks. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Product+Filing+PDFs/PMUS+-+USHREWC+-+(2026.08.07).pdf This market and these products have not been endorsed by Decision Desk HQ. Any references to Decision
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.14 | 97.3% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-05 House Election Winner | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| NC-05 House Election Winner | 97¢ | 97% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.