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LA-05 House Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the LA-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction. This market is eligible for accelerated settlement based on a consensus of race calls by network decision desks. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Product+Filing+PDFs/PMUS+-+USHREWC+-+(2026.08.07).pdf This market and these products have not been endorsed by Decision Desk HQ. Any references

Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
94¢ (now)0.5¢$0.2994.5%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
LA-05 House Election Winner94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
LA-05 House Election Winner10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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