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Will Union Membership Rise in 2027 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the annual average number of wage and salary workers age 16 and over who were members of unions in 2027, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Union Members release for 2027, is greater than the number reported for 2026 in the Union Members release for 2026. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market settles based on the Union Members release published annually, viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.toc.htm. The number of union members is currently reported in thousands in Table 1 of each release. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor

Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
38¢ (now)2.2¢$2.9440.2%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Union Membership Rise in 2027?38¢38%2.2¢—76%0Jan 29, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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