What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 56¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.09.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 58% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 56%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 148.5 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Montana and San Francisco combine for over 148.5 points in the Montana vs San Francisco men's college basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 10:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

56%

Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

88% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
56¢ (now)	2.3¢	$2.09	58.3%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 148.5?	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 150.5?	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 146.5?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 152.5?	41¢	41%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 144.5?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 154.5?	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 142.5?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 156.5?	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 140.5?	73¢	73%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 158.5?	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 138.5?	78¢	78%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 160.5?	23¢	23%	1.7¢	—	46%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 136.5?	82¢	82%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 162.5?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 134.5?	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 164.5?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 132.5?	90¢	90%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 167.5?	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 129.5?	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 170.5?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 126.5?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 173.5?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 123.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 176.5?	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 120.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 179.5?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 117.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the total in Montana vs. San Francisco be more than 147.5?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will Montana score more than 68.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will Montana score more than 70.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will Montana score more than 66.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will San Francisco score more than 79.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will San Francisco score more than 81.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	51¢	51%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will San Francisco score more than 77.5 points in Montana vs. San Francisco?	67¢	67%	2.1¢	—	66%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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