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How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if total public debt outstanding, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in Debt to the Penny, for any reporting day from October 1, 2026 through December 31, 2027 is greater than or equal to $45,000,000,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This market settles based on Debt to the Penny, published each business day by the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, viewable at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/. Each day's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the U.S. Department of the Treasury does not publish complete data for the specified period by Ja
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 64¢ (now) | 2.2¢ | $1.71 | 66.2% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028? | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
| How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028? | 27¢ | 27% | 1.9¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
| How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028? | 64¢ | 64% | 2.2¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
| How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028? | 77¢ | 77% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
| How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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