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Conference to Win Pro Football Championship on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if a team in the American Football Conference (AFC) wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship scheduled for February 14, 2027 (as of the listing of the events first instrument). If the Pro Football Championship is cancelled with no official winner determined, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the Pro Football Championship is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled, the market will remain open and settle once an official champion is determined. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)
67%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
67¢ (now)2.1¢$1.5769.1%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Conference to Win Pro Football Championship37¢37%2.2¢—74%0Mar 01, 04:00 UTC
Conference to Win Pro Football Championship67¢67%2.1¢—66%0Mar 01, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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