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Tom Holland Number of Oscar Nominations on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Tom Holland receives exactly 0 nominations at the 99th Oscars, as announced in the official nominations announcement expected on January 21, 2027. Only nominations naming Tom Holland as a nominee count, and each category counts once. If the nominations are only partially announced by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle based on the nominations announced up to that point; if no nominations are announced by then, the market will settle as if Tom Holland received 0 nominations. Outcome sourced from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7123.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Tom Holland Number of Oscar Nominations22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Tom Holland Number of Oscar Nominations90¢90%0.9¢—20%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Tom Holland Number of Oscar Nominations12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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