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The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if The Odyssey receives 2 or more nominations at the 99th Oscars, as announced in the official nominations announcement expected on January 21, 2027. Nominations received by The Odyssey or by people for their work on The Odyssey count, and each category counts once even if it has multiple nominees from the film. If the nominations are only partially announced by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle based on the nominations announced up to that point; if no nominations are announced by then, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
The Odyssey Number of Oscar Nominations99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Feb 05, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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