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Will SNAP Participation Reach 40M Before 2028 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if national SNAP participation (persons) for any month from July 2026 through December 2027 is greater than or equal to 40,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Administration. This market settles based on national SNAP participation published monthly as "Participation Persons", currently in the "National and/or State Level Monthly and/or Annual Data" section of the USDA Food and Nutrition Administration's SNAP Data Tables, viewable at https://www.fna.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the USDA Foo

Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
41¢ (now)2.3¢$2.8043.3%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will SNAP Participation Reach 40M Before 2028?41¢41%2.3¢—82%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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