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2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Partys seat count in the United States Senate is greater than or equal to 55 as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States Senate. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 (ET). Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats?98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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