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Will Avengers: Doomsday have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than Dune: Part Three on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Avengers: Doomsday has a higher Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score than Dune: Part Three at 10:00 AM ET on December 21, 2026. If both films have the same score, or if either film does not have a Tomatometer score displayed at that time, this market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from Rotten Tomatoes.

Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Avengers: Doomsday have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than Dune: Part Three?30¢30%2.0¢—60%0Jan 05, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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