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Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Real Earnings release for December 2026, is greater than 0.0 percent. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market settles based on the Real Earnings release published monthly alongside the Consumer Price Index, viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish the 12-month

Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)1.3¢$3.9917.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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