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Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee receives the most valid votes of any candidate in Miami-Dade County in the 2026 Florida Senate election. Outcome sourced from the Government of Florida. Vote totals will be inclusive of all valid votes cast in Miami-Dade County, as reflected in the certified results from the Government of Florida. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in Miami-Dade County, Yes contract holders for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County Winner99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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