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2028 Presidential Election: Arizona Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee receives the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Arizona in the 2028 United States Presidential Election that is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. This market settles based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that states electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes from Arizona, Yes cont

Market says (typical open contract)
73%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
73¢ (now)1.9¢$1.2874.9%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2028 Presidential Election: Arizona Winner73¢73%1.9¢—54%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Presidential Election: Arizona Winner34¢34%2.1¢—68%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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