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Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee receives the most valid votes of any candidate in Maricopa County in the 2026 Arizona Governor election. Outcome sourced from the Government of Arizona. Vote totals will be inclusive of all valid votes cast in Maricopa County, as reflected in the certified results from the Government of Arizona. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in Maricopa County, Yes contract holders for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Arizona Governor Election: Maricopa County Winner1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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