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Trump Meets With Kim Jong Un on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Donald Trump meets in person with Kim Jong Un between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un, and their authorized representatives. An in-person meeting is defined as any encounter where both individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For full rules, see: https://polymarketexchange.com/files/pro

Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
21¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7522.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Trump Meets With Kim Jong Un?21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Trump Meets With Kim Jong Un?21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Trump Meets With Kim Jong Un?21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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