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Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the US House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump between Contract Issuance and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the US House of Representatives. Subsequent conviction, removal, acquittal proceedings, or legal challenge to the validity of the impeachment will not affect market settlement. The introduction of articles of impeachment or procedural votes or actions which do not constitute official adoption do not qualify as impeachment.

Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)1.5¢$3.8021.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?89¢89%0.9¢—22%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Who Will Be Impeached by June 30, 2027?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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