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Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Donald Trump's approval rating, as published by RealClearPolitics, is between 39.6 and 39.8, inclusive, at 5:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026. Outcome sourced from RealClearPolitics. Donald Trump's approval rating is the figure published in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval," published by RealClearPolitics at: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20PARC%20-%20(2026.09.29).pdf

Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
36% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)1.4¢$3.9019.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?19¢19%1.5¢—38%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?18¢18%1.4¢—36%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC
Trump's Approval Rating on Nov 13?28¢28%1.9¢—56%0Nov 27, 22:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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