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2028 U.S. House Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 United States general election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States House of Representatives. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chambers voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2028 general election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control o

Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
80¢ (now)1.5¢$0.9581.5%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2028 U.S. House Election Winner80¢80%1.5¢—41%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 U.S. House Election Winner20¢20%1.5¢—41%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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