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Trump Resigns on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Donald Trump resigns as the President of the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Donald Trump and the White House. Resignation refers to Donald Trump formally ceasing to hold the position of President of the United States through self-initiated means, including, but not limited to, resignation and retirement. Externally-imposed departures and announcements of future resignations do not qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. Ceasing to hold the specified posit
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28¢ (now) | 1.9¢ | $3.42 | 29.9% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Resigns? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Trump Resigns? | 28¢ | 28% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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