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Delcy Rodriguez Officially Out as Venezuela President on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Delcy Rodriguez formally ceases to hold the position of President of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Delcy Rodriguez and the government of Venezuela. For the purposes of this market, Rodriguez holds the presidency whether she occupies it in an acting or full capacity. Rodriguez ceasing to occupy the office in an acting capacity while remaining President of Venezuela will not qualify. Rodriguez must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; re

Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
32¢ (now)2.1¢$3.2334.1%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Delcy Rodriguez Officially Out as Venezuela President?7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Delcy Rodriguez Officially Out as Venezuela President?32¢32%2.1¢—64%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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