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Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Rafael Fiziev's next UFC bout is officially announced to be against Renato Moicano by December 31, 2027. If the UFC does not officially announce a fight for Rafael Fiziev by December 31, 2027, this market will settle to No. This market will settle based on an official announcement from the UFC, regardless of whether the fight occurs. Outcome sourced from UFC.

Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)0.8¢$4.329.8%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent46¢46%2.4¢—92%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Rafael Fiziev Next UFC Opponent10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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