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Senate Majority Leader in the 120th Congress on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Chuck Schumer is the next person selected as Senate Majority Leader for the 120th United States Congress. Outcome sourced from the Senate Democratic Caucus, the Senate Republican Conference, and the United States Senate. A person will be considered selected as Senate Majority Leader when they are elected to the position by the Senate Democratic Caucus or the Senate Republican Conference, depending on which party holds majority status in the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. A selection made before the 120th Congress convenes will qualify. Acting or interim leaders will not qualify. If no such Senate Majority Leader is selected by December 31, 20
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 85¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.71 | 86.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate Majority Leader in the 120th Congress? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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