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Speaker of the House in the 120th Congress on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Pete Aguilar is the next person selected as Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress. Outcome sourced from the United States House of Representatives. A person will be considered selected as Speaker of the House when they are elected to the position through a vote of the full United States House of Representatives. Acting or interim Speakers, including any Speaker pro tempore, will not qualify. If no such Speaker is selected by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to No.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $4.66 | 2.2% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speaker of the House in the 120th Congress? | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 18, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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