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US Enacts AI Safety Bill on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if an AI Safety Bill is enacted into U.S. federal law by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States Congress and the White House. An AI Safety Bill is any legislation containing a provision that imposes at least one of the following on developers or deployers of AI systems generally, or on a defined class of them (such as developers of models above a stated compute, capability, or parameter threshold): - Prohibition on Release or Mandated Review: Forbids the release of specific AI systems or models, or of models above a stated capability threshold; mandates federal government review and approval or non-rejection of such models as a con

Market says (typical open contract)
83%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
83¢ (now)1.3¢$0.8184.3%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
US Enacts AI Safety Bill?83¢83%1.3¢—34%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
US Enacts AI Safety Bill?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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