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Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026 on Polymarket US

If Deel confirms an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by Deel, the relevant IPO regulatory authority, and the IPOs primary listing exchange. An IPO is confirmed when i) the SEC declares the specified companys Form S-1 or equivalent registration statement effective, or an equivalent filing with an alternative recognized national securities regulator is approved and made public ii) the IPO is priced (e.g., through a final pricing press release or submission of SEC Form 424B4) or iii) a public securities exchange assigns the specified company a ticker symbol and announces that the company has been approved for initial listing pursuant to an

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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