Markets › Polymarket US › Politics
Netanyahu Arrested on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from relevant law enforcement authorities. A qualifying arrest refers to the specified person being taken into physical custody, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) they are criminally booked or processed; (ii) they are taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) they are held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) they are transported to a police sta
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $4.42 | 7.6% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu Arrested? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.