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How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. city average price of ground beef, 100% beef, per pound for any month from September 2026 through December 2026 is greater than or equal to $7.40. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market settles based on the average price of ground beef, 100% beef, per pound published monthly in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index Average Price Data, viewable at https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU0000703112. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish complete data for the specified period by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this ma

Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)1.3¢$3.9917.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31?16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31?17¢17%1.3¢—34%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC
How High Will Beef Prices Get by Dec. 31?32¢32%2.1¢—64%0Jan 28, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.