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Argentina Presidential Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes If Facundo Manes wins the 2027 Argentina Presidential Election, including any potential runoff. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. In the event that the 2027 Argentina Presidential Election is rescheduled, this market will settle based on the results of the next Argentina Presidential Election to be held within two years of October 24, 2027.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Argentina Presidential Election Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner11¢11%0.9¢—22%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner33¢33%2.1¢—66%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC
Argentina Presidential Election Winner48¢48%2.4¢—96%0Nov 08, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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