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What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the United States and Iran sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for Iranian reconstruction or economic development, or creates an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to such reconstruction or development, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States, Iran, and the officially released text of the instrument. The instrument must either directly establish a fund or substantive funding mechanism the purpose of which is to hold or collect, and distribute funds used in the reconstruction or economic development of Iran, or establish

Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)0.6¢$4.427.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026?7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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