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JD Vance Announces a Presidential Run on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if J.D. Vance announces they will run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from public announcements and communications from J.D. Vance. To qualify, J.D. Vance, or their authorized representatives, must publicly and unambiguously declare that J.D. Vance will be a candidate in the 2028 United States Presidential election, including a run for a party's nomination. Official candidacy filing is not required. Conditional, non-definitive, or exploratory statements do not qualify, including statements that J.D. Vance is considering or open to a run, likely to run, or will r

Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
41¢ (now)2.3¢$2.8043.3%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
JD Vance Announces a Presidential Run?34¢34%2.1¢—68%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
JD Vance Announces a Presidential Run?41¢41%2.3¢—82%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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