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2026 Senate Combo: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Democratic Party candidates win the 2026 midterm elections for US Senator from Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction. A Republican Party candidate means the Republican Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Republican Party. A Democratic Party candidate means the Democratic Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Democratic Party. If an independent or third-party candidate wins any of these elections, this market wi
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $4.61 | 3.3% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Senate Combo: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:00 UTC |
| 2026 Senate Combo: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:00 UTC |
| 2026 Senate Combo: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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