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Closest Senate Race on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 Kansas US Senate election has the smallest margin of victory of any US Senate election held in 2026. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margi

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$4.701.1%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC
Closest Senate Race?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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