PredictMeNot
Theme

Markets › Polymarket US › Politics

Closer Senate Race: North Carolina or Georgia on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 Georgia US Senate election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 North Carolina US Senate election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, t

Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Closer Senate Race: North Carolina or Georgia?30¢30%2.0¢—60%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
Closer Senate Race: North Carolina or Georgia?30¢30%2.0¢—60%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.