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Pete Hegseth Impeached and Convicted on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the United States Senate passes a vote to convict Pete Hegseth, United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense), on one or more articles of impeachment between Contract Issuance and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States Senate. The passage of a vote to convict on an article of impeachment requires a two-thirds vote as mandated under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment by the House without a Senate vote to convict does not qualify. Any subsequent Senate vote on disqualification from future office, whether Pete Hegseth vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the impeachment or conviction will n

Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)0.6¢$4.427.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Pete Hegseth Impeached and Convicted?7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Apr 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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