What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 30¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.32.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 32% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 30%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Estonia win against Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 16, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Estonia vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 16, 2026 at 12:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UEFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

30%

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

60% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Estonia win against Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 16, 2026?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the UEFA Nations League match Estonia vs Bulgaria scheduled for Nov 16, 2026 end in a draw?	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will Bulgaria win against Estonia in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 16, 2026?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish Draw 0-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 1-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 1-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish Draw 1-1?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 2-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 2-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 2-1?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 2-1?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish Draw 2-2?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 3-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 3-0?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 3-1?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 3-1?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish EST wins 3-2?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL finish BUL wins 3-2?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will Estonia lead Bulgaria at halftime?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will EST vs BUL be tied at halftime?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will Bulgaria lead Estonia at halftime?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will Estonia win the second half against Bulgaria?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the second half of EST vs BUL be a draw?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will Bulgaria win the second half against Estonia?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 30, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.