What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 45¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 45%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the ORL Magic win the first half vs the SAC Kings on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner of the first half in the ORL Magic vs SAC Kings professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 10:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If both teams score the same number of points in the first half, the market will settle to Tie. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

45%

Median YES price across 57 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
45¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.61	47.4%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the ORL Magic win the first half vs the SAC Kings?	62¢	62%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the first half of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the first half vs the ORL Magic?	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic win the second half vs the SAC Kings?	73¢	73%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the second half of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the second half vs the ORL Magic?	58¢	58%	2.3¢	—	84%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the first quarter of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic win the first quarter vs the SAC Kings?	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the first quarter vs the ORL Magic?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic win the second quarter vs the SAC Kings?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the second quarter of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the second quarter vs the ORL Magic?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic win the third quarter vs the SAC Kings?	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the third quarter of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the third quarter vs the ORL Magic?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic win the fourth quarter vs the SAC Kings?	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the fourth quarter of ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings end in a tie?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings win the fourth quarter vs the ORL Magic?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 10 points before the SAC Kings?	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 10 points before the ORL Magic?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 20 points before the SAC Kings?	61¢	61%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 20 points before the ORL Magic?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 30 points before the SAC Kings?	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 30 points before the ORL Magic?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 40 points before the SAC Kings?	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 40 points before the ORL Magic?	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 50 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 50 points before the ORL Magic?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 60 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 60 points before the ORL Magic?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 70 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 70 points before the ORL Magic?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 80 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 80 points before the ORL Magic?	51¢	51%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will neither team reach 80 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 90 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 90 points before the ORL Magic?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will neither team reach 90 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the ORL Magic reach 100 points before the SAC Kings?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC
Will the SAC Kings reach 100 points before the ORL Magic?	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 57 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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