What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 33¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.18.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 35% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 33%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the MIL Bucks win the first half vs the NY Knicks on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner of the first half in the MIL Bucks vs NY Knicks professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If both teams score the same number of points in the first half, the market will settle to Tie. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

33%

Median YES price across 57 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

66% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
33¢ (now)	2.1¢	$3.18	35.1%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the MIL Bucks win the first half vs the NY Knicks?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the first half of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the first half vs the MIL Bucks?	82¢	82%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks win the second half vs the NY Knicks?	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the second half of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the second half vs the MIL Bucks?	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the first quarter of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks win the first quarter vs the NY Knicks?	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the first quarter vs the MIL Bucks?	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the second quarter of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks win the second quarter vs the NY Knicks?	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the second quarter vs the MIL Bucks?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks win the third quarter vs the NY Knicks?	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the third quarter of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the third quarter vs the MIL Bucks?	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks win the fourth quarter vs the NY Knicks?	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the fourth quarter of MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks win the fourth quarter vs the MIL Bucks?	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 10 points before the MIL Bucks?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 10 points before the NY Knicks?	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 20 points before the NY Knicks?	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 20 points before the MIL Bucks?	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 30 points before the MIL Bucks?	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 30 points before the NY Knicks?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 40 points before the NY Knicks?	41¢	41%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 40 points before the MIL Bucks?	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 50 points before the NY Knicks?	39¢	39%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 50 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 60 points before the NY Knicks?	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 60 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 70 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 70 points before the NY Knicks?	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 80 points before the NY Knicks?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 80 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will neither team reach 80 points in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 90 points before the NY Knicks?	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 90 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will neither team reach 90 points in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the NY Knicks reach 100 points before the MIL Bucks?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC
Will the MIL Bucks reach 100 points before the NY Knicks?	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 00:30 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 57 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.