What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 44¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 46% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 44%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the MIA Heat win the first half vs the UTA Jazz on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner of the first half in the MIA Heat vs UTA Jazz professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 9:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If both teams score the same number of points in the first half, the market will settle to Tie. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

44%

Median YES price across 57 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

88% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
44¢ (now)	2.3¢	$2.66	46.3%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the MIA Heat win the first half vs the UTA Jazz?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the first half of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the first half vs the MIA Heat?	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat win the second half vs the UTA Jazz?	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the second half of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the second half vs the MIA Heat?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat win the first quarter vs the UTA Jazz?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the first quarter of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the first quarter vs the MIA Heat?	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat win the second quarter vs the UTA Jazz?	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the second quarter of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the second quarter vs the MIA Heat?	41¢	41%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the third quarter of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat win the third quarter vs the UTA Jazz?	61¢	61%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the third quarter vs the MIA Heat?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the fourth quarter of MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz end in a tie?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat win the fourth quarter vs the UTA Jazz?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz win the fourth quarter vs the MIA Heat?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 10 points before the UTA Jazz?	61¢	61%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 10 points before the MIA Heat?	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 20 points before the UTA Jazz?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 20 points before the MIA Heat?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 30 points before the UTA Jazz?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 30 points before the MIA Heat?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 40 points before the UTA Jazz?	78¢	78%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 40 points before the MIA Heat?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 50 points before the UTA Jazz?	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 50 points before the MIA Heat?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 60 points before the UTA Jazz?	82¢	82%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 60 points before the MIA Heat?	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 70 points before the UTA Jazz?	83¢	83%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 70 points before the MIA Heat?	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 80 points before the UTA Jazz?	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 80 points before the MIA Heat?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will neither team reach 80 points in MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 90 points before the UTA Jazz?	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 90 points before the MIA Heat?	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will neither team reach 90 points in MIA Heat vs. UTA Jazz?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the MIA Heat reach 100 points before the UTA Jazz?	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC
Will the UTA Jazz reach 100 points before the MIA Heat?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 02:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 57 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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