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Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Derrick Henry records over 18.5 rushing touchdowns in the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 101 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
22% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $4.23 | 11.9% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs | 70¢ | 70% | 2.0¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs | 65¢ | 65% | 2.2¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing TDs | 86¢ | 86% | 1.1¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing TDs | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing TDs | 21¢ | 21% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing TDs | 51¢ | 51% | 2.4¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing TDs | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jonathan Taylor Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jonathan Taylor Regular Season Rushing TDs | 43¢ | 43% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jonathan Taylor Regular Season Rushing TDs | 58¢ | 58% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jonathan Taylor Regular Season Rushing TDs | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Christian McCaffrey Regular Season Rushing TDs | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Christian McCaffrey Regular Season Rushing TDs | 68¢ | 68% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Christian McCaffrey Regular Season Rushing TDs | 92¢ | 92% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs | 78¢ | 78% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs | 83¢ | 83% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Regular Season Rushing TDs | 46¢ | 46% | 2.4¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Regular Season Rushing TDs | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Regular Season Rushing TDs | 77¢ | 77% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Regular Season Rushing TDs | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ashton Jeanty Regular Season Rushing TDs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ashton Jeanty Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ashton Jeanty Regular Season Rushing TDs | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ashton Jeanty Regular Season Rushing TDs | 16¢ | 16% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ashton Jeanty Regular Season Rushing TDs | 31¢ | 31% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| De'Von Achane Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| De'Von Achane Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| De'Von Achane Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| De'Von Achane Regular Season Rushing TDs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| De'Von Achane Regular Season Rushing TDs | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| James Cook Regular Season Rushing TDs | 36¢ | 36% | 2.2¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| James Cook Regular Season Rushing TDs | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| James Cook Regular Season Rushing TDs | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Josh Allen Regular Season Rushing TDs | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Josh Allen Regular Season Rushing TDs | 61¢ | 61% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Josh Allen Regular Season Rushing TDs | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 101 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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