What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 39¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.90.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 41% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 39%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 10 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander records 10 or more points in the OKC Thunder vs POR Trail Blazers professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 11:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. The listed player must participate in the game by taking the court for any amount of playing time; otherwise, the market will settle to the last fair market price. The market will settle based on the official box score at the conclusion of the game. For purposes of this market, stat corrections enforced after settlement will not count. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a dat

Market says (typical open contract)

39%

Median YES price across 298 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

78% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
39¢ (now)	2.3¢	$2.90	41.3%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 10 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 15 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 20 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 25 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 30 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	65¢	65%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 35 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 40 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	23¢	23%	1.7¢	—	46%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 45 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 2 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 4 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 6 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 2 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 4 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 6 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 8 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 10 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 1 three-point field goals made in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	89¢	89%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 2 three-point field goals made in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	66¢	66%	2.1¢	—	68%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 3 three-point field goals made in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	39¢	39%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 4 three-point field goals made in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 5 three-point field goals made in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 30 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 35 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	81¢	81%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 40 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 45 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	42¢	42%	2.3¢	—	84%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 50 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander record at least 55 combined points, rebounds and assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 5 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 10 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 15 points in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 2 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 4 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 6 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 8 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 10 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 12 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 14 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 16 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 18 total rebounds in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
Will Isaiah Hartenstein record at least 2 assists in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers?	88¢	88%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 25, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 298 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.