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Musetti wins 2-0 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Lorenzo Musetti wins the match by a score of 2-0 sets in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel ATP match scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 1:10PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If a player retires or is disqualified during the match and the market can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed, the market will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within

Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
80¢ (now)1.5¢$0.9581.5%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Musetti wins 2-079¢79%1.6¢—42%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC
Musetti wins 2-180¢80%1.5¢—40%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC
Samuel wins 2-129¢29%2.0¢—58%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC
Samuel wins 2-029¢29%2.0¢—58%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC
Will Lorenzo Musetti win set 1 against Toby Samuel?98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC
Will Lorenzo Musetti win set 2 against Toby Samuel?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 23:10 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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