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Will the PHI Flyers cover -3.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Flyers covers a -3.5 goal spread in the Flyers vs Oilers NHL game scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 9:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If a shootout determines the winner, the shootout will count as one goal for the winning team. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
61%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
61¢ (now)2.3¢$1.8563.3%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the PHI Flyers cover -3.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will the PHI Flyers cover -2.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will the PHI Flyers cover -1.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will the PHI Flyers cover 1.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?61¢61%2.3¢—78%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will the PHI Flyers cover 2.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?72¢72%1.9¢—56%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will the PHI Flyers cover 3.5 vs the EDM Oilers in PHI vs EDM?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover -1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the first period of PHI vs EDM?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover +1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the first period of PHI vs EDM?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover -1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the second period of PHI vs EDM?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover +1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the second period of PHI vs EDM?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover -1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the third period of PHI vs EDM?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC
Will PHI Flyers cover +1.5 vs EDM Oilers in the third period of PHI vs EDM?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 26, 07:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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