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Will the OTT Senators cover -3.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Senators covers a -3.5 goal spread in the Senators vs Penguins NHL game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 7:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If a shootout determines the winner, the shootout will count as one goal for the winning team. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the OTT Senators cover -3.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?38¢38%2.2¢—76%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will the OTT Senators cover -2.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?38¢38%2.2¢—76%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will the OTT Senators cover -1.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?48¢48%2.4¢—96%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will the OTT Senators cover 1.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will the OTT Senators cover 2.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will the OTT Senators cover 3.5 vs the PIT Penguins in OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover -1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the first period of OTT vs PIT?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover +1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the first period of OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover -1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the second period of OTT vs PIT?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover +1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the second period of OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover -1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the third period of OTT vs PIT?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC
Will OTT Senators cover +1.5 vs PIT Penguins in the third period of OTT vs PIT?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 29, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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