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Will the NYI Islanders cover -3.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Islanders covers a -3.5 goal spread in the Islanders vs Kings NHL game scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 10:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If a shootout determines the winner, the shootout will count as one goal for the winning team. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
77%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
77¢ (now)1.7¢$1.0978.7%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the NYI Islanders cover -3.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?24¢24%1.7¢—48%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will the NYI Islanders cover -2.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will the NYI Islanders cover -1.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?77¢77%1.7¢—46%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will the NYI Islanders cover 1.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?75¢75%1.8¢—50%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will the NYI Islanders cover 2.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will the NYI Islanders cover 3.5 vs the LAK Kings in NYI vs LAK?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover -1.5 vs LAK Kings in the first period of NYI vs LAK?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover +1.5 vs LAK Kings in the first period of NYI vs LAK?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover -1.5 vs LAK Kings in the second period of NYI vs LAK?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover +1.5 vs LAK Kings in the second period of NYI vs LAK?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover -1.5 vs LAK Kings in the third period of NYI vs LAK?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC
Will NYI Islanders cover +1.5 vs LAK Kings in the third period of NYI vs LAK?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 27, 08:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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