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Will the Felix Gill cover -1.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Felix Gill covers a -1.5 game spread across the full Felix Gill vs Menelaos Efstathiou ATP match scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 3:00AM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If a player retires or is disqualified during the match and the market can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed, the market will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two da
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 69¢ (now) | 2.0¢ | $1.47 | 71.0% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Felix Gill cover -1.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 58¢ | 58% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover 1.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 69¢ | 69% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover -4.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 57¢ | 57% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover 4.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 75¢ | 75% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover -7.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover 7.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover -1.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 39¢ | 39% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
| Will the Felix Gill cover 1.5 vs the Menelaos Efstathiou in Felix Gill vs. Menelaos Efstathiou? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 23, 13:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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