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Which Company Has #1 Math AI Model end of November on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Alibaba is ranked #1 by Lab Rank on the Arena AI Text Arena (Math) leaderboard on November 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Lab Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena (Math) leaderboard, with the "Labs" view selected and Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs). Rankings on any other Arena AI leaderboard will not be considered. If multiple companies are tied on Lab Rank, the company whose highest-ranked model has the highest Score (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard) will be

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 0 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢ (now)2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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