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Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Amazon has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/chat/text?scoring=raw). If multiple models from different companies are tied on rank, the model with the highest Score (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard) will be considered ranked higher. If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabeti
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $4.70 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 25¢ | 25% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 75¢ | 75% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of November? | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 14, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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